Increase in inventory, steel price reduction(2021.6.29)

This week, the domestic seamless pipe market prices have dropped. In terms of market: the domestic market demand is general, traders report that demand is declining, downstream sourcing is more cautious, and the overall market demand is general.
In terms of inventory: the national seamless pipe social inventory is 742,100 tons, and the inventory has increased by 10,700 tons. Traders have a general mentality and are cautious about the later market. It is expected that the national seamless pipe market will operate weakly.
 

 
 
Figure 1: Changes in social inventory of seamless steel pipes across the country (unit: 10,000 tons)
 
 
Commentary by region:
[East China] The price of seamless pipes in East China fluctuated and became weaker this week. At present, the price of seamless pipe 108*4.5mm is 5800-6450 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw materials: on the 25th, the Shandong hot-rolled tube billet plant's price increase is generally temporarily stable, and the Φ75-130mm steel plant direct delivery includes tax: Luli 5000 yuan/ton, Weigang 4950 yuan/ton, Tiangang (outside the factory) 4950 yuan /Ton, Linyi Jiangquan 4980 yuan/ton (Φ50-70mm5030 yuan/ton).
On the 25th, the price of hot-rolled tube billet in Jiangsu dropped slightly. Now 20# Huaigang 5300 yuan/ton, Zhongtian 5280 yuan/ton, Longteng 5260 yuan/ton, Changqiang 5200 yuan/ton, Dongfang 5220 yuan/ton.
Tube factory: Linyi seamless pipe prices are temporarily stable on the 25th, hot rolled 42*3.5mm Jinbaocheng 6040 yuan/ton, 108*4.5mm Panjin reported 5900 yuan/ton, 108*4.5mm Jinzhengyang reported 5840 yuan/ton, 108*4.mm Jinbaocheng reported 5820 yuan/ton.
In terms of the market: this week, the price of hot-rolled tube billets in Shandong has dropped by 80-100 yuan/ton, and the prices of mainstream pipe manufacturers have dropped by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market price in East China has dropped accordingly. This week, the price of seamless pipes was mainly due to a weak downward adjustment. The raw material end Shandong hot-rolled pipe billet and Jiangsu hot-rolled pipe billet were lowered more than seamless pipes. The profit of the management plant has rebounded slightly, but due to the fact that there are still high-priced raw materials in the plant and the pressure on the factory warehouse, while encountering the traditional off-season of demand, most of the plants mainly focus on maintenance and lower prices for shipments. It is expected that the market price of seamless pipes in East China will remain weak in the short term.
 
 
[South China] The market price of seamless pipes in South China this week fell 150 yuan/ton from last week, and the transaction was weak. As of press time, 108*4.5mm seamless pipes in South China are quoted at RMB 6,200-6450/ton with tax, and 219*6mm seamless pipes are quoted at RMB 6,200-6500/ton with tax.
In terms of raw materials: the price of hot-rolled billets in Shandong has dropped by 100 yuan/ton from last week, Φ75-130mm steel mills direct shipments include tax: Luli 5000 yuan/ton, Weigang 4950 yuan/ton, Tiangang 4950 yuan/ton, Linyi Jiangquan is 4980 yuan/ton.
In terms of tube manufacturers: this week, the price of seamless tube plants dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, 108*4.5mm hot-rolled seamless tube Panjin 5900 yuan/ton, Jinzhengyang 5840 yuan/ton, and Jinbaocheng 5820 yuan/ton, both Weighing includes tax.
In terms of market, the market price of seamless pipes in South China this week dropped by RMB 150/ton from last week, and the transaction was weak. The prices of raw materials and tube factories continued to fall, and the market prices were lowered overall. In terms of inventory, merchants have limited willingness to replenish inventory and choose to consume previous inventory, so the market inventory dropped slightly this week. In terms of mentality, customers have expressed that the recent market has been weak, with fewer downstream inquiries, and prices have fallen darkly. At present, shipments are still the main focus. Recently, the rain in the south has affected shipments, and the mentality of various merchants is down. For the later trend, the author expects that the market price of seamless pipes in South China may fluctuate.
 
 
[Central China] The market price of seamless pipes in Central China dropped sharply this week. As of press time, 108*4.5mm seamless pipes in Central China are quoted at 6000-6250 yuan/ton, and 219*6mm seamless pipes are quoted at 5950-6100 yuan/ton, all of which are weighed and tax included.
In terms of raw materials: on the 25th, the Shandong hot-rolled tube billet plant raised prices generally stable, Φ75-130 steel mills directly issued taxes including: Luli 5000, Weigang 4950, Tiangang (outside the factory) 4950, Linyi Jiangquan 4980 (Φ50-70mm5030) ), the week-on-week decline was 100-120 yuan/ton.
Tube factory: Linyi seamless pipe prices stabilized temporarily on the 25th, hot-rolled 42*3.5 Jinbaocheng 6040 yuan/ton, 108*4.5 Panjin reported 5900 yuan/ton, 108*4.5 Jinzhengyang reported 5840 yuan/ton, 108*4.5 Jinbaocheng reported 5820 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week.
On the market side: this week, the price of hot-rolled tube billets in Shandong has fallen by 100-120 yuan/ton, the price of mainstream pipe manufacturers has fallen by 50 yuan/ton, and the market price in Central China has fallen sharply. Some management plants in Central China introduced preferential policies this week. Prices have fallen darkly. Merchants make replenishment on demand. Market prices have fallen accordingly, and transactions are average. Merchants are still holding a wait-and-see attitude towards the later period. On the whole, seamless pipe prices are expected to fluctuate and weaken in the short term.
 
 
 
[Northeast China] In terms of prices: the price of seamless pipes in the Northeast market dropped sharply this week. As of June 25, Shenyang reported 6,150 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous month; Changchun reported 6,250 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous month. Tons; Harbin reported 6,250 yuan/ton, a month-on-month drop of 150 yuan/ton, and the weighted price includes tax.
For the management plant:
On the 25th, the price of Linyi seamless pipe is temporarily stable, hot-rolled 42*3.5mm Jinbaocheng 6040 yuan/ton, 108*4.5mm Panjin reported 5900 yuan/ton, 108*4.5mm Jinzhengyang reported 5840 yuan/ton, 108*4.5mm Jinbaocheng reported 5820 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw materials: on the 25th, Shandong hot-rolled tube billet plant raised prices generally stable, Φ75-130 steel mills directly issued tax including tax, Luli 5000 yuan/ton, Weigang 4950 yuan/ton, Tiangang (outside the factory) 4950 yuan/ Tons, Linyi Jiangquan 4980 yuan/ton (Φ50-70mm5030 yuan/ton).
On the 25th, the price of hot-rolled tube billet in Jiangsu dropped slightly. Now 20# Huaigang 5300 yuan/ton, Zhongtian 5280 yuan/ton, Longteng 5260 yuan/ton, Changqiang 5200 yuan/ton, Dongfang 5220 yuan/ton.
On the market side: the price of seamless pipes in Northeast China continued to fall this week, and the market became weaker. Affected by the hot weather in June, the demand for steel products in the southern region has weakened, and the tube mills are also facing the problem of weak transactions. Although the price of seamless pipes has recently experienced a sharp correction, the price of seamless pipes is still higher than that of the same period last year. After experiencing a sharp drop in May, traders in the northeast region are generally operating with low inventories, and under high-priced resources, capital is obviously occupied. Many customers reduce their standing inventory to speed up inventory turnover. In the short term, after the price drops, a certain amount of downstream demand may be released, and the northeast is currently in the starting season, and there is still room for later demand. However, the weakening of raw material prices and the poor acceptance of orders by management plants will pose certain restrictions on prices. In summary, the price of seamless pipes in Northeast China is expected to fluctuate and weaken next week.
 
 
 
[North China] The market price of seamless pipes in North China this week was lower than that of last week, and the overall transaction was weak. As of press time, 108*4.5mm seamless pipes in North China are quoted at RMB 5,900-6,500/ton with tax, which is a decrease of RMB 50-100/ton from last Friday.
In terms of raw materials: on the 25th, the Shandong hot-rolled tube billet plant raised prices generally stable, Φ75-130 steel mills directly issued taxes including: Luli 5000, Weigang 4950, Tiangang (outside the factory) 4950, Linyi Jiangquan 4980 (Φ50-70mm5030) )
Tube factory: Linyi seamless pipe prices stabilized temporarily on the 25th, hot rolled 42*3.5 Jinbaocheng 6040 yuan/ton, 108*4.5 Panjin reported 5900 yuan/ton, 108*4.5 Jinzhengyang reported 5840 yuan/ton, 108*4.5 Jinbaocheng reported 5820 yuan/ton.
On the market side: this week, the market price of seamless pipes in North China maintained a weak operation, and shipments declined compared with last week. The southern rainy season is approaching, the northern high temperature and rain are approaching, the downstream demand is insufficient, the pipe factory has accumulated more inventory, and the high inventory is low. The demand will continue for a period of time, and it is expected that the market price of seamless pipes in North China will fluctuate and operate mainly next week.
 
 
 
[Southwest China] The price of seamless pipes in the Southwest market dropped by RMB 50/ton this week, and the market shipments were poor. As of press time, Φ108*4.5mm seamless pipes in Sichuan and Chongqing are reported at 6300-6350 yuan/ton; Φ219*6mm in Yunnan-Guizhou area are reported at 6370-6400 yuan/ton. The prices above are all weighed and tax included.
In terms of raw materials: today, the Shandong hot-rolled tube billet plant raises prices generally steadily. Φ75-130mm steel mills directly send taxes including tax: Luli 5000 yuan/ton, Weigang 4950 yuan/ton, Tiangang (outside the factory) 4950 yuan/ton , Linyi Jiangquan 4980 yuan/ton, 100-120 yuan/ton lower than last Friday's price.
In terms of tube factory: Linyi seamless pipe prices are temporarily stable today, hot-rolled Φ42*3.5mm Jinbaocheng 6040 yuan/ton, Φ108*4.5mm Panjin reported 5900 yuan/ton, Φ108*4.5mm Jinzhengyang reported 5840 yuan/ton, Φ108 *4.5mm Jinbaocheng reported 5820 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton lower than last Friday's price.
In terms of the market, billets and seamless pipes have weakened and adjusted this week. The billet fell the most, reaching 120 yuan/ton. The seamless pipe factory fell slightly by 50 yuan/ton. The price of seamless pipe in the southwest market followed the adjustment of the pipe factory and also fell by 50 yuan/ton. At present, seamless pipe traders in the Southwest market have almost no profit in shipments. If they are under pressure to withdraw funds, they will even ship at a loss. It is currently in the off-season and market demand is poor. It is comprehensively estimated that seamless pipes in the southwestern region may still weaken in the short term.
 

 
[Northwest China] This week, the prices of seamless pipes in mainstream markets in the western region dropped slightly. As of press time, 108*4.5mm Linyi Jinzhengyang Xi’an market reported 6,200 yuan/ton, Lanzhou market reported 6,300 yuan/ton, Urumqi market 108*4.5mm clad steel production price reported 6,550 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw materials: on the 25th, the Shandong hot-rolled tube billet plant raised prices generally stable, Φ75-130mm steel mills direct delivery including tax: Luli 5000 yuan/ton, Weigang 4950 yuan/ton, Tiangang (outside the factory) 4950 yuan/ Ton, Linyi Jiangquan 4980 yuan/ton (Φ50-70mm5030 yuan/ton), a decrease of 100-120 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis.
Tube factory: Linyi seamless pipe prices stabilized temporarily on the 25th, hot rolled 42*3.5mm Jinbaocheng 6040 yuan/ton, 108*4.5mm Panjin reported 5900 yuan/ton, 108*4.5mm Jinzhengyang reported 5840 yuan/ton, 108*4.5mm Jinbaocheng reported 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.
In terms of the market, raw materials declined this week, the prices of mainstream pipe factories in Shandong were weakly adjusted, and the quotations of major cities in the northwestern region were adjusted simultaneously. According to survey statistics, the seamless pipe transaction volume this week has improved significantly compared with last week. Yesterday, the Northwest region's transaction volume broke out slightly, and some wait-and-see customers took the goods in time; the price continued to be weak this week, and the merchants were pessimistic about the price drop. Preparations, the price cuts are basically within expectations, the market quotations are relatively stable, most traders follow the market, and no longer look forward to the June market. The price of seamless pipes in Northwestern China is expected to fluctuate mainly in July, and some areas may increase.



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